NATEM

Model developed

References

Vaillancourt K. Bahn O. Frenette E. Sigvaldason O. 2017. Exploring deep decarbonization pathways to 2050 for Canada using an optimization energy model framework. Applied Energy 195: 774-785. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.03.104

Description

North American TIMES Energy Model has been used to model all North America in 13 Canadian provinces and territories, 9 USA census region, and 1 Mexican region, Plus trade links with rest of the World. The temporal range of this version encompasses 2011-2015 with annual or multi-annual periods and 16 intra-annual time slice (4 seasons; 4 intra-day periods)

Peer-reviewed papers or book chapters:

Vaillancourt K. Bahn O. Levasseur A. 2018. The role of bioenergy in low-carbon energy transition scenarios: A case study for Quebec (Canada). Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 102: 24-34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.11.025

Vaillancourt K. Bahn O. Sigvaldason O. 2018. The Canadian contribution to limiting global warming below 2oC: An analysis of technological options and regional cooperation. In G. Giannakidis K. Karlsson M. Labriet B. Ó Gallachóir (eds). Springer Lecture Notes in Energy: Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2°C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development: 223-242. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74424-7_14

Astudillo MF. Vaillancourt K. Pineau P-O. Amor B. (2018). Integrating energy system models in life cycle management. In: Benetto E, Gericke K (eds) Designing sustainable technologies, products and policies: from science to innovation. Springer, Luxembourg. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-66981-6_28

Vaillancourt K. Bahn O. Patreau V. Roy P.O. 2018. The role of new fossil fuels projects in a decarbonizing energy system: A case studies for Quebec (Canada). Applied Energy 218: 114-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.02.171

Astudillo M.F. Vaillancourt K. Pineau P.-O. Amor M.B. 2017. Can the household sector reduce global warming mitigation costs? Sensitivity to key parameters in a TIMES techno-economic energy model. Applied Energy 205: 486-498. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.07.130

Levasseur A. Bahn O. Beloin-Saint-Pierre D. Marinova M. Vaillancourt K. 2016. Assessing butanol from integrated forest biorefinery: A combined techno-economic and life cycle approach. Applied Energy 198: 440-452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.04.040

Reports

Dunsky P. Poirier M. Vaillancourt K. Joly E. (2019). Trajectoires de réduction d’émissions de GES du Québec – Horizons 2030 et 2050. Final Report. Quebec Ministry of Environment and Climate Change. http://www.environnement.gouv.qc.ca/changementsclimatiques/trajectoires-emissions-ges.pdf

Vaillancourt K. Sigvaldason O. Ogilvie K. 2018. Appendix E : Minimum Cost Strategies for GHG Mitigation for Ontario to 2030, and to 2050. Préparé pour la Commissaire à l’environnement de l’Ontario en support de son rapport Climate Action in Ontario: What’s Next? 2018 Greenhouse Gas Progress Report. https://www.cae-acg.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/ECO_Report.pdf

Vaillancourt et al. 2018. Métaux et économie circulaire au Québec. Rapport de l’étape 3.2 : Analyse technico-économique des stratégies de circularité. Projet réalisé par l’Institut EDDEC et ses partenaires institutionnels et financé par le ministère de l’Énergie et des Ressources naturelles (MERN), 169 p. https://mern.gouv.qc.ca/mines/publications/analyses-projets-recherche/

Langlois-Bertrand S. Vaillancourt K. Bahn O. Beaumier L. Mousseau N. 2018. Perspectives énergétiques canadiennes 2018 – Horizon 2050. Institut de l’énergie Trottier et Pôle e3. http://iet.polymtl.ca/perspectives-energetiques/

Vaillancourt K. Alcocer A. Bahn O. 2015. Impact of the Energy East pipeline on the oil and gas industry in Newfoundland and Labrador – Demonstration of a new soft-linking model framework. Final report. Prepared for Collaborative Applied Research in Economics (CARE), Memorial University of Newfoundland, 49p. https://www.mun.ca/care/news.php?id=6438

Applications

It has been applied to draft climate action plans, define optimal sequences for the introduction of mitigation measures, identify strategic research priorities for reducing mitigation costs, prepare Canadian energy outlooks, prepare technology road maps, assess technological penetration rates, assess economic and environmental impact assessments of future energy projects

Users

Output used by decision-makers at different levels of governments (federal, provincial, city levels), industries and associations: Quebec ministry of environment and climate change and Quebec ministry of finance in preparation of the climate action plan: the model was used to identify optimal GHG reduction trajectories for achieving the official targets taking into account uncertainties related to the evolution of demands, social acceptability, and technological innovation (Dunsky et al.,2019), environmental commissioner of Ontario in preparation of its climate action plan: the model was used to compared costs and other impacts for i) achieving Canadian only mitigation targets and ii) achieving both Ontario and Canadian mitigation targets (Vaillancourt et al.,2018d),metropolitan Montreal community (MMC) in preparation of its climate action plan: the model is used in support to the development of an action plan and define priorities in consultation with key stakeholders to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 (no reference,ongoing project).

At the federal level, the model is used to prepare Canadian energy outlooks including both business-as-usual and deep Decarbonisation scenarios: the most recent Canadian energy outlook (Langlois-Bertrand et al.,2018) with an ambitious scenario including a GHG reduction target of 80% by 2050 compared to 1990; the first of its kind in over a decade covering Canada and its 13 jurisdictions, the previous Trottier energy futures project (TEFP, 2016) is now a reference in Canadian universities and government offices to understand how canada can achieve its official targets.

NATEM is also used to support the private sector and associations with the preparation of technology roadmaps and assessment of technological penetration rates under deep decarbonisation scenarios: a gas company in preparation of its long-term strategic plan 2015-2030: the model was used to analyse the penetration rates of renewable natural gas and liquefied natural gas under mitigation scenarios for achieving official mitigation targets (no reference, confidential project), biofuel Canada network: the model was used to derive market penetration rates of two biofuel pathways (butanol from pulp and paper residues and ethanol from fast-growing trees) to 2050 under GHG mitigation scenarios (Levasseur et al.,2016), Natem is also used to brief governmental decision-makers on the economic and environmental impacts of energy projects and energy security aspects,prime minister office and Quebec ministry of environment and climate change to support its position on the exploitation of hydrocarbon on the Anticosti island: the model was used to assess the impacts of meeting the GHG targets with and without the project (Vaillancourt et al.,2018c), centre for applied research in economics (care): the model was used to evaluate the impacts of the transcanada energy east pipeline on the oil supply-demand dynamic and prices in eastern provinces, Newfoundland and Labrador especially (Vaillancourt et al.,2015), amongst other applications, the model is used to assist decision-makers with the evaluation of circular economy strategies: Quebec ministry of energy and natural resources: the model was used to analyse the techno-economic potential of multiple circular economy strategies for the mining industries, namely with supply chain of iron and steel, copper and lithium (Vaillancourt et al.,2018e)

Key Inputs

especially technical and economic attributes of multiple technologies, energy service demands, demand price-elasticities, price of imported, price of exported commodities, reserve supply curves, discount rate

Key Outputs

technology investments and annual activities, emission trajectories, adjusted demands for energy services, marginal prices of energy forms, energy Imports, energy exports, emission permits, total discounted system cost

Registered developers

NameOrganization
Kathleen VaillancourtESMIA Consultants Inc.